The Twin Elephants in the Room, Huffpost Green

24th march 2011

The current unrest in the Arab nations has called the world's attention to some of the political and economic consequences of the West's addiction to petroleum. But sadly it hasn't brought back into focus two more fundamental and interrelated problems. The first is the population explosion; the second is the expectation of perpetual growth in per capita consumption, not just for several billion poor people, but for the billion or so who are already rich.


In the next forty years the populations of already-water short Arab nations are going to increase dramatically, and at the same time their people will be aspiring to catch up with the living standards of today's developed countries. For example, Egypt, with 80 million people today, is projected to grow to some 138 million by 2050. Per capita income in Egypt is now about $5,500, compared with about $47,000 in the United States and $30,000 in the European Union.

The aspiration gap is even more stunning for sub-Saharan Africa, which is projected to explode from 870 million people to 1.8 billion in the next 40 years. Per capita income there is now $2,000, and less than a third of the population has access to a toilet. That gap will doubtless widen further as the poor suffer disproportionately from climate disruption, the spread of toxic chemicals, and an extinction episode unmatched in 65 million years, threatening the natural services upon which people are utterly dependent. Given the additional need to invest in completely re-engineering the planet's energy-mobilizing and water-handling infrastructure and rising pressure on resources, even maintaining today's standards of living in both rich and poor nations will be increasingly difficult.


The press is full of stories about problems caused at least in part by the conjoined but unmentionable twin elephants of population growth and overconsumption. But spiking food and energy prices, water shortages, increasingly severe weather, melting ice caps, dying coral reefs, intersex alligators, disappearing polar bears, collapsing infrastructures, terrorism, and novel epidemics are almost never connected to the elephants. While obviously there are limits to sustainable human numbers and to humanity's aggregate consumption, those limits are almost never discussed.

Tokyo at risk: Can megacities cope with disaster?

By Marlowe Hood (AFP) – 3 days ago

PARIS — The cascade of catastrophe that has befallen Japan highlights the vulnerability of megacities to disaster, including fallout from a nuclear accident, say experts on urban risk.

Greater Tokyo, home to 35 million people, mostly escaped the devastation wrought by the March 11 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami that swept the coast of northeastern Honshu.

Tokyo is also, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), beyond the reach of the radioactive plume emanating from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant -- at least for now.

But what if the quake had struck nearer the city, like the Great Kanto earthquake of 1923? Or if the tsunami had occurred opposite Tokyo Bay? Or if the nuclear plant that had been crippled was an ageing facility at Hamaoka that lies 200 kilometres (120 miles) south, and thus upwind, of the capital?

"This incident puts in clear evidence the fragility of megacities in every aspect: physical, social, economic and ecological," said Fouad Bendimerad, head of the Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative, an international scientific organisation that analyses disaster risk.

"Many previous assumptions about the resiliency of megacities will be put into question."

To read full article
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iilt8VsyJQYX5_4JA7hIeo7VCiGw?docId=CNG.58e763c4f9e27c86cf73881d881278bb.791

Saudis Take Steps to Quell Dissent

By ANGUS MCDOWALL in Dubai and SUMMER SAID in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

  23 march 2011 - The Wall Street Journal - Middle East

A host of new benefits promised recently by Saudi King Abdullah will boost the income of many Saudi citizens and may help the kingdom avoid the regime-shaking unrest that has roiled neighboring Arab countries.

But the estimated $93 billion of government handouts doesn't address one of the kingdom's most destabilizing problems: the persistently high level of unemployment among Saudi youth, some analysts, employers and job seekers say.

The monarchy has taken a number of steps to pre-empt outbursts of public dissent. It said this week it will hold long-delayed municipal elections on April 23—though elected representatives have little power and share municipal councils with government appointees.

On Friday, the king announced the creation of 60,000 new public-sector jobs, higher salaries for government employees and an allowance for the unemployed. That came on top of pledges made in February, when King Abdullah returned home from a three-month medical absence shortly after Saudi ally Hosni Mubarak was driven from power in Egypt.

The world's largest oil exporter hasn't seen large-scale antigovernment protests, although hundreds of Shiites have demonstrated in the country's oil-rich Eastern province seeking equal treatment and the release of political prisoners.

A high rate of youth unemployment was one of the factors that spurred mass demonstrations in other Arab countries, and with hundreds of thousands of young Saudis entering the labor market every year, Saudi authorities have long viewed unemployment as a problem that could provoke dissatisfaction with the government and push young people toward radical politics.

Friday's announcement of benefits coincided with a speech in which the king thanked Saudis for their loyalty a week after they had shunned a proposed "day of rage." Saudi authorities have refused to draw a link between the benefits and elections, and the threat of unrest, maintaining the king is a popular leader and that protests have been the work of a small minority of malcontents.

Agriculture: the last frontiers

Circa 2 billion hectares of soil, equivalent to 15 per cent of the Earth's land area (an area larger than the United States and Mexico combined), have been degraded through human activities. The limited potential for land expansion for cultivation worried Norman Borlaug (father of the green revolution), who, in March 2005, stated that, "we will have to double the world food supply by 2050." With 85% of future growth in food production having to come from lands already in use, he recommends a multidisciplinary research focus to further increase yields, mainly through increased crop immunity to large-scale diseases, such as the rust fungus, which affects all cereals but rice.


According to Borlaug, "Africa, the former Soviet republics, and the cerrado are the last frontiers. After they are in use, the world will have no additional sizable blocks of arable land left to put into production, unless you are willing to level whole forests, which you should not do.


Source: Wikipedia

Birth of a Revolution - A look at the recent uprisings

They are young, they are frustrated and there are more of them than at any other time in history. Ian MacLeod breaks down the demographics to explain how age rage is fuelling the uprisings in the Arab world, and how the phenomenon might play out in the years to come.

Today's Arab rebellion began rising three decades ago as a neonatal bulge rippling across the Middle East and North Africa.

As fertility rates climbed in the villages of Bahrain and Algeria and the streets of Cairo, Damascus, Tunis and Sanaa, experts warned countries to brace for an unparalleled "youth bulge" that would some day demand skills training, jobs, homes and prosperity.

Autocrats who failed to take heed and harness the advancing multitude with economic opportunities risked rebellion.

That day, of course, has arrived with incendiary force.

With a record 100 million young people aged 15 to 29 in the Arab world -and tens of millions of youngsters behind them -the age imbalance has matured into a leviathan of civil unrest bent on crushing the region's most sclerotic regimes.

The roots of revolt lie in grievances from people of all ages: high unemployment, poor living conditions, food inflation, police brutality, gender inequality, corruption, despotic rule.

But it is the region's tilted demographic forces and the rebellious soul of youth that is driving the resentment, frustration and anger into the streets and the history books.

Mohamed Bouazizi, a 26-year-old Tunisian street fruit vendor, triggered the mass rage by setting himself ablaze Dec. 17 to protest government harassment.

Bouazizi was one of 5.3 million Tunisians under 30 -half the total population -and was struggling to earn $140 a month to support his mother, uncle and siblings in a country.

73% of Yemenis are under 30 years of age.

36% of Canadians are under 30.

His desperate act and death Jan. 4 ignited popular uprisings in a half dozen countries. Soon after, Tunisia's president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was ousted, followed by Egypt's Hosni Mubarak. In Bahrain, Shia protesters took to the streets last week demanding an elected government for the tiny Gulf Arab island where a Sunni king rules a Shia majority, and today in Libya, where an estimated 2,000 people have died, there is continuing violence to overthrow dictator Moammar Gadhafi.

Tunisia was not only at the forefront of the insurrection, but stands to emerge earliest from the unrest and with new promise.

As one of the countries in the region where the 15-29 age group has peaked and the fertility rate is low (and falling) compared to the North African and Middle Eastern averages, Tunisia's prospects for social and political stability, and even the likelihood of achieving and maintaining democratic governance, are better than many of its neighbours.

By the same measures, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Iran are not expected to reach a more balanced age demographic for another decade.

Others, including Iraq, the West Bank and Gaza, and Yemen face the greatest challenges. Yemeni women have an average of half a dozen children and 55 per cent of the population is under the age of 20. Seventythree per cent is under 30. (In Canada, it's 36 per cent.)

The world now has the largest generation of young people in history, with 3.6 billion people under 30. Research shows 80 per cent of all civil conflicts that caused at least 25 deaths between 1970 and 1999 occurred in countries where 60 per cent or more of the population was under age 30.

Young Arabs, like much of their global cohort, view the rest of the world through the twinkling prism of the Internet. What they see -affluence, political inclusion, advanced education systems, freedom of speech, promise -is largely alien to their lives.

"Opportunities are available elsewhere and that can create grievances and frustrations about why those same opportunities aren't available to them," says Elizabeth Leahy Madsen, a senior research associate at Population Action International, a Washington advocacy group.

Mass grievances can lead people to rise up and speak out, but can also incite armed rebellion, a point not lost on recruiters for al-Qaeda and its extremist affiliates that prey on youth in failing and failed states.

"If you don't have access to good jobs, to be self-sustainable, the 'opportunity costs' of joining a rebel movement or uprising is lower because there's little else that you're giving up," says Madsen, co-author of The Shape of Things to Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More Equitable World.

Earth economist: The food bubble is about to burst

New Scientist, 10 February, 2011

By Alison George

We're fast draining the fresh water resources our farms rely on, warns Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute

What is a food bubble?

That's when food production is inflated through the unsustainable use of water and land. It's the water bubble we need to worry about now. The World Bank says that 15 per cent of Indians (175 million people) are fed by grain produced through overpumping - when water is pumped out of aquifers faster than they can be replenished. In China, the figure could be 130 million.

Has this bubble already burst anywhere?

Saudi Arabia made itself self-sufficient in wheat by using water from a fossil aquifer, which doesn't refill. It has harvested close to 3 million tonnes a year, but in 2008 the Saudi authorities said the aquifer was largely depleted. Next year could be the last harvest. This is extreme, but about half the world's people live in countries with falling water tables. India and China will lose grain production capacity through aquifer depletion. We don't know when or how abruptly the bubble will burst.

With population rising, a fall in grain production would spell big trouble.

Yes. Tonight at the dinner table there will be 219,000 people who weren't there last night. But that's not all: we also have maybe 3 billion people moving up the food chain, consuming more grain-intensive livestock products. Then there is the conversion of grain into ethanol for cars, mainly in the US, where last year 119 million tonnes went to distilleries out of a harvest of just over 400 million tonnes.

What will happen if we carry on as we are now?

UN 'concerned' by world population growth trends By Camille Ebden BBC News

The world population growth rate must slow down significantly to avoid reaching unsustainable levels, says a new UN report.

To have a reasonable chance of stabilising world population, fertility must drop to below "replacement level". It must then be maintained at that level for an extended period, says the report. This replacement level is the fertility level at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next.

The world population is already poised to reach 7 billion later this year and this figure potentially could double to 14 billion by 2100 if action is not taken. This is of particular concern for the least developed countries worldwide, which are growing at the fastest rate and are already the most vulnerable to famine. The UN Population Division have produced six projections of potential future population change based on different changes to fertility level and other factors. In the medium scenario, world population peaks at 9.4 billion in 2070 and then starts to decline. However for this to happen, fertility needs to decline significantly in most developing countries.

Human Appropriation of Nature Unsustainable - Environmental knowledge for change - see also educational material pages

Biodiversity loss: state and scenarios 2006 and 2050

Biodiversity loss: state and scenarios 2006 and 2050. These projections of biodiversity loss from 2000 to 2050 were produced by the GLOBIO consortium for UNEP's Global Environment Outlook 4. Across the GEO scenarios and regions, global biodiversity continues to be threatened, with strong implications for ecosystem services and human well-being. All regions continue to experience declines in terrestrial biodiversity in each of the scenarios. The greatest losses are seen in Markets First, followed by Security First, Policy First and Sustainability First for most regions. Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean experience the greatest losses of terrestrial biodiversity by 2050 in all four scenarios, followed by Asia and the Pacific. The differences among the regions are largely a result of broad-scale land-use changes, especially increases in pastureland and areas dedicated to biofuel production. The overall changes in terrestrial biodiversity though, are influenced by a number of other factors, including infrastructure development, pollution and climate change, as well as public policy and conflict. For the full report, please see http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4

Sources	GLOBIO 3 analysis, by MNP, UNEP-WCMC and UNEP/GRID-Arendal, published in: UNEP. 2007. Global Environment Outlook 4 - Environment For Development. Nairobi, Kenya: UNEP.
Link to web-site	http://www.globio.info/region/world/
Cartographer/ Designer	Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Appears in	GLOBIO assorted maps Global Environment Outlook 4 (GEO-4)
Published	2007

The importance of family planning: Why on earth would anyone want to increase rather than decrease human suffering?

The year 2010 marked a crucial moment where only five years remained to accomplish the goals that the international community set out to achieve in 2000 with the Millennium Declaration and ICPD for family planning.

Not only are family planning budgets not being met, but they are now in 2011 at risk of being severely cut as governments come under increasing pressure to cut down their expenditure.

It is precisely at times of economic crisis and population growth that family planning services should be increased, not decreased.

The official figures speak loud and clear:

1.        200 million women around the world do not have access to family planning services

2.        385,000 women every year die as a result of pregnancy and had funding targets been met, 70% of these lives could be saved.

Population Action International estimate that for every $100 million invested in family planning there are:

3.6 million more family planning users





2.1 million unintended pregnancies are avoided





825,000 abortions prevented





970,000 fewer births





70,000 fewer infant deaths





4,000 maternal deaths averted




By reducing or cutting funding we are simply taking away women's right to chose, putting lives at risk, increasing sexually transmitted diseases, and contributing to further increases in population growth we can ill afford. In turn we will have greater poverty, environmental degradation and conflict.

Author: Dr. A. Marcar

Read Sir David Attenborough's brief article in the Mail today: ‘Only flat-earthers deny we have a population problem’

By DAILY MAIL REPORTER

Last updated at 3:58 AM on 11th March 2011

Sir David Attenborough today urged people to break the 'absurd taboo' of not speaking about population growth and attacked the Catholic doctrine on contraception as being a major factor in the problem.

In a speech to the Royal Society of Arts in London, hosted by its president, the Duke of Edinburgh, Sir David said there was a 'strange silence' over the population issue.

Sir David said there needed to be a change in our culture so that while everyone retained the right to have as many children as they liked, they understood that having large families meant compounding the problems their children and everyone else's children would face in the future.

Decline of honey bees now a global phenomenon, says United Nations

The mysterious collapse of honey-bee colonies is becoming a global phenomenon, scientists working for the United Nations have revealed.

Declines in managed bee colonies, seen increasingly in Europe and the US in the past decade, are also now being observed in China and Japan and there are the first signs of African collapses from Egypt, according to the report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

The authors, who include some of the world's leading honey-bee experts, issue a stark warning about the disappearance of bees, which are increasingly important as crop pollinators around the globe. Without profound changes to the way human beings manage the planet, they say, declines in pollinators needed to feed a growing global population are likely to continue. The scientists warn that a number of factors may now be coming together to hit bee colonies around the world, ranging from declines in flowering plants and the use of damaging insecticides, to the worldwide spread of pests and air pollution. They call for farmers and landowners to be offered incentives to restore pollinator-friendly habitats, including key flowering plants near crop-producing fields and stress that more care needs to be taken in the choice, timing and application of insecticides and other chemicals. While managed hives can be moved out of harm's way, "wild populations (of pollinators) are completely vulnerable", says the report.

"The way humanity manages or mismanages its nature-based assets, including pollinators, will in part define our collective future in the 21st century," said Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive Director.

"The fact is that of the 100 crop species that provide 90 per cent of the world's food, over 70 are pollinated by bees.

"Human beings have fabricated the illusion that in the 21st century they have the technological prowess to be independent of nature.

"Bees underline the reality that we are more, not less, dependent on nature's services in a world of close to seven billion people."

By Michael McCarthy, Environment Editor

For full article http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/decline-of-honey-bees-now-a-global-phenomenon-says-united-nations-2237541.html

Looking at US unemployment and population at the height of the recession, By Ron Brown, Home Loan Specialist

The weekly numbers for initial jobless claims were released today showing a "better than expected" number of "only" 432,000. The "better than expected" part of this number is because the average estimate by a group of leading economists was for this number to come in at 460,000. Either way, these negative numbers are not good, and worse yet, they don't paint an accurate picture.

The initial claims report is the number of people who claimed unemployment for the first time this past week. In other words, 432,000 people lost their jobs for one reason or another during the week of Christmas. What this number misses is the how many people "came of age" during this week, but have not yet become employed. By this I mean the total number of people in the country who turned 18, and are now considered adults. Not all of these people will be looking for a job right away, but the vast majority will need employment in the near future, even if that is after they graduate from college.

The bottom line is for our economy to maintain a level of employment, and keep up with population growth, whether that be 90%, 95%, or any other number, we must actually Create jobs, not limit the number of job losses. Consider the fact that our country has approximately 325 Million people. If population growth were limited to 1% that would be 3.25 million new citizens each year. 3.25 million divided by 12 months is over 270,000 new mouths to feed every month. The 150,000 new jobs necessary to maintain a stable employment level is rather conservative when compared to this figure. What this means is that the 432,000 lost jobs must be increased by at least 150,000 to give an accurate picture of how our economy is performing - falling behind by 682,000.

There are other components of the unemployment statistics that are meant to provide a better overall picture of our economy's employment, such as the continuing claims number which attempts to keep track of the total number of people unable to find work. This number is similarly understated because we can only track the number of people who are in the initial 26 week unemployment cycle. All those people who could not find work in that 6 month period stop being counted whether they find employment, or not. Worse again is the distortion caused by the recent extension of unemployment benefits. The good news is that folks looking for work, but not able to find it are being subsidized beyond the accepted 26 weeks, but the bad news is that the unemployment figures do not continue to account for them as unemployed. They just "disappear" from the ranks of the unemployed.

I don't mean this article to be as much of a downer as most will think, but rather to raise awareness of just how big the task at hand is. Until we are given more accurate information, it will be near impossible to create a comprehensive plan that has a chance of success.

Read more: http://www.askronbrown.com

UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030

The impact of an increase in UK population over the next 10 years by 7.7% is expected to continue to feed Britain's INFLATIONARY MEGA-TREND for the next decade as rising population puts extra pressure on Britains capacity constrained infrastructure, pressure on consumer and asset prices, especially house prices and associated costs as well as contributing economically to an increase in nominal GDP growth. Whilst maintaining the expected trend that UK unemployment will remain high for the duration of the next 10 years, no matter what job creation initiatives the government attempts to implement to reduce stubbornly high unemployment levels as between 70% and 80% of new jobs created will go to migrant workers as was the experience under the last Labour government.

To read full article : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21565.html

Visiting professor explains consequences of overpopulation - The Daily Reveille

The human population is steadily growing, said Jean-Marc Zaninetti, visiting geography professor from the University of Orleans, France, but increasing pressure on the earth's resources will coincide.

Zaninetti explained the consequences of a rapidly growing population Friday at a University forum called "Why Malthus Was Probably Right," in reference to controversial philosopher Thomas Malthus who suggested increasing population would negatively affect global society.

United Nations statistics show a population boom occurred in the 1950s, he said, and continuing growth has been exponential since. Zaninetti said the U.N. expects the world's population to peak in the latter half of the 21st century.

Zaninetti said there are two options for dealing with increasing population — adaptation or de-growth.

Adaptation would be humanity's wisest choice, he said, but it may be difficult due to the strain a larger population would put on the planet's resources.

He said the earth's other option in coping with higher population, de-growth, isn't favorable, but a forced decrease in population may occur if humanity is unwilling to adapt.

Stephen Beckage, geography graduate student, said Zaninetti's data was convincing.

"If you listened to everything that he had to say, it'd be difficult to argue with him," he said.

Adam McLain, biological sciences graduate student, said Zaninetti provided statistical proof for many of the theories McClain has read, and he said he agrees disastrous problems could arise if individuals are not more cautious about environmental resources.

Human-made climate change is a potentially fatal problem, and more people on Earth will cause more harmful green house gas emissions, Zaninetti said.

"U.N. statistics predict a 32 percent increase in global population by 2050," he said.

More humans on Earth evoke a higher demand for resources like meat and agriculture, he said, but methods used to meet these demands — like an increase in livestock — will cause a greater presence of nitrogen, carbon dioxide and methane in the earth's atmosphere.

Due to these increases, Zaninetti said global temperature is expected to rise 4.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

And he said sustainability relies on individual countries.

"All countries have not been created equal," Zaninetti said.

Statistics from the Global Footprint Network show each country has strengths and weaknesses in sustainability, he said.

India is expected to replace China as the most heavily populated country, but countries in North and South America have a higher biocapacity, or the ability to sustain human life by means of renewable resources, he said.

Zaninetti said statistics show "leaders in the race of a world collapse" are the U.S., China and many European countries. But China is making tremendous efforts to thwart greenhouse gas emissions, he said.

"Many want to dismiss Malthus in favor of a more optimistic outlook," Zaninetti said.

Visiting professor explains consequences of overpopulation - The Daily Reveille