The New York Times,
Over the last decade, population growth in the fifth of American counties where January temperature averaged above 43 degrees was over 9 percent, while the population growth in the fifth of American counties where January temperature average below 22 degrees was less than 2 percent. Population growth was over 13 percent in the fifth of counties where more than 21 percent of adults had college degrees in 2000, while growth in the least educated three-fifths of counties was below 3 percent.
The powerful pull of skills reminds us that human capital is the bedrock of local and national success. The message of the Sun Belt is more complicated. Its success tells us a bit about the pleasures of warmth, and a bit about the importance of natural resources and a bit about the impact of limited government.
Population data is from the 2000 and 2010 Census.
Skills data (share of 25+ population with a college degree) is from the 2000 Census.
January temperature comes from ICPSR (Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research) Study No. 2896, “Historical, Demographic, Economic, and Social Data: The United States, 1790-2002,” by Michael R. Haines, which compiles data from various Census sources over many years.
The chart shows population growth across American counties between 2000 and 2010. I have ranked counties both by average January temperature and by share of the adult population with college degrees as of the year 2000. Each point represents one-tenth of America’s counties. The blue line shows the powerful connection between skills and population growth; the red line shows the also-strong connection between January temperature and population growth. Both trends represent longstanding patterns.
Last week, I discussed a new paper of mine jointly written with Giacomo Ponzetto and Kristina Tobio, looking at population growth over the last two centuries. Our longer-run investigation focused on counties in the eastern United States, roughly bordered by the Mississippi, in order to focus on an area that was populated at the time of the Civil War. For more recent decades, we also look at metropolitan areas throughout the United States.
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