Monday, May 21, 2012

What Sex Means for World Peace The evidence is clear: The best predictor of a state's stability is how its women are treated.


By Valerie M. Hudson. 24th April, 2012. Foreign Policy.

In the academic field of security studies, realpolitik dominates. Those who adhere to this worldview are committed to accepting empirical evidence when it is placed before their eyes, to see the world as it "really" is and not as it ideally should be. As Walter Lippmann wrote, "We must not substitute for the world as it is an imaginary world."

Well, here is some robust empirical evidence that we cannot ignore: Using the largest extant database on the status of women in the world today, which I created with three colleagues, we found that there is a strong and highly significant link between state security and women's security. In fact, the very best predictor of a state's peacefulness is not its level of wealth, its level of democracy, or its ethno-religious identity; the best predictor of a state's peacefulness is how well its women are treated. What's more, democracies with higher levels of violence against women are as insecure and unstable as nondemocracies.

To read more:

Fresh water demand driving sea-level rise faster than glacier melt Trillions of tonnes of water have been pumped up from deep underground reservoirs in every part of the world, says report


For three decades, Saudi Arabia has been drilling for water from underground aquifers. Engineers and farmers have tapped hidden reserves of water to grow grains, fruit and vegetables in the desert of Wadi As-Sirhan Basin. Photograph: Landsat/Nasa.
By Damian Carrington. The Guardian, 21st May, 2012

Humanity's unquenchable thirst for fresh water is driving up sea levels even faster than melting glaciers, according to new research. The massive impact of the global population's growing need for water on rising sea levels is revealed in a comprehensive assessment of all the ways in which people use water.

Trillions of tonnes of water have been pumped up from deep underground reservoirs in every part of the world and then channelled into fields and pipes to keep communities fed and watered. The water then flows into the oceans, but far more quickly than the ancient aquifers are replenished by rains. The global tide would be rising even more quickly but for the fact that man-made reservoirs have, until now, held back the flow by storing huge amounts of water on land.

"The water being taken from deep wells is geologically old – there is no replenishment and so it is a one way transfer into the ocean," said sea level expert Prof Robert Nicholls, at the University of Southampton. "In the long run, I would still be more concerned about the impact of climate change, but this work shows that even if we stabilise the climate, we might still get sea level rise due to how we use water." He said the sea level would rise 10 metres or more if all the world's groundwater was pumped out, though he said removing every drop was unlikely because some aquifers contain salt water. The sea level is predicted to rise by 30-100cm by 2100, putting many coasts at risk, by increasing the number of storm surges that swamp cities.

To read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/may/20/world-aquifers-rising-sea-levels?intcmp=122

Saturday, May 12, 2012

Population Pressure Impacts World Wetlands - Press Release CNRS


ScienceDaily (May 11, 2012) — The area of the globe covered by wetlands (swamps, marshes, lakes, etc.) has dropped by 6% in fifteen years. This decline is particularly severe in tropical and subtropical regions, and in areas that have experienced the largest increases in population in recent decades.

These are the conclusions of a study conducted by CNRS and IRD researchers from the Laboratoire d'étude du rayonnement et de la matière en astrophysique (CNRS / Observatoire de Paris / UPMC / Université de Cergy-Pontoise / ENS), Laboratoire d'études en géophysique et océanographie spatiales (CNRS / IRD / CNES / Université Toulouse III-Paul Sabatier) and the start-up Estellus.* To obtain these results, the scientists performed the first worldwide mapping of the wetlands and their temporal dynamics, for the years 1993 to 2007.

This study, which has just been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, emphasizes the impact of population pressure on water cycles.

People and Planet: Full edit with the audience Q&A session



Sir David Attenborough full lecture about the planet.
RSA 2011



Friday, May 11, 2012

Melinda Gates' New Crusade: Investing Billions in Women's Health

Nigel Parry for Newsweek
Thanks to PMC for this article. By Michelle Goldberg, 7th May, 2012.
She plans to use the Gates Foundation's billions to revolutionize contraception worldwide. The Catholic right is pushing back. Is she ready for the political firestorm ahead?
In the 12 years since Melinda Gates and her husband, Bill, created the Gates Foundation, the world’s largest philanthropic organization, she has done a lot of traveling. A reserved woman who has long been wary of the public glare attached to the Gates name, she comes alive, her associates say, when she’s visiting the foundation’s projects in remote corners of the world. “You get her out in the field with a group of women, sitting on a mat or under a tree or in a hut, she is totally in her element, totally comfortable,” says Gary Darmstadt, director of family health at the foundation’s global health program.
Visiting vaccine programs in sub-Saharan Africa, Gates would often ask women at remote clinics what else they needed. Very often, she says, they would speak urgently about birth control. “Women sitting on a bench, 20 of them, immediately they’ll start speaking out and saying, ‘I wish I had that injection I used to get,’” says Gates. “‘I came to this clinic three months ago, and I got my injection. I came last week, and I couldn’t get it, and I’m here again.’”
They were talking about Depo-Provera, which is popular in many poor countries because women need to take it only four times a year, and because they can hide it, if necessary, from unsupportive husbands. As Gates discovered, injectable contraceptives, like many other forms of birth control, are frequently out of stock in clinics in the developing world, a result of both funding shortages and supply-chain problems. Women would tell her that they’d left their farms and walked for hours, sometimes with children in tow, often without the knowledge of their husbands, in their fruitless search for the shot. “I was just stunned by how vociferous women were about what they wanted,” she says.
Because of those women, Gates made a decision that’s likely to change lives all over the world. As she revealed in an exclusive interview with Newsweek, she has decided to make family planning her signature issue and primary public health a priority. “My goal is to get this back on the global agenda,” she says. She is sitting in an office in the Gates Foundation’s 900,000-square-foot headquarters in downtown Seattle, a pair of airy boomerang-shaped buildings flooded with natural light. It was here at headquarters late last year that she announced her new emphasis on contraception at an all-staff meeting, to thrilled applause.
Now the foundation, which is worth almost $34 billion, is putting her agenda into practice. In July it’s teaming up with the British government to cosponsor a summit of world leaders in London, to start raising the $4 billion the foundation says it will cost to get 120 million more women access to contraceptives by 2020. And in a move that could be hugely significant for American women, it is pouring money into the long-neglected field of contraceptive research, seeking entirely new methods of birth control. Ultimately Gates hopes to galvanize a global movement. “When I started to realize that that needed to get done in family planning, I finally said, OK, I’m the person that’s going to do that,” she says.

Uproar in NZ over free contraception plan


ABC News, The World Today, NZ correspondent Dominique Schwartz. 8th May, 2012
The New Zealand government is planning to offer free long-term contraception to women on welfare payments in a budget measure that is whipping up a storm of fury.
While some family planning organisations have welcomed the move, one poverty action group says it borders on state control of reproduction.
New Zealand has one of the highest rates of teenage pregnancies among OECD countries. A United Nations report last year also highlighted what it called the country's "staggering" rates of child abuse and poverty.
The government says it is committed to helping families break out of the beneficiary cycle by getting recipients back into education and jobs. To that end, it has unveiled a $230 million welfare reform package.

To read more:

The Great Pacific Garbage Patch Poses New Threat to Marine Life A landfill twice the size of Texas is floating in the middle of the Pacific, and scientists are starting to get worried.


Imagine a landfill twice the size of Texas, filled with junk, castoffs and other trash. Now imagine it’s floating in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

By Catherine Cooney. Time, Newsfeed, 11th May, 2012
The Great Pacific Garbage Patch, a swirling vortex of plastic and flotsam, stretches across a vast swath of the Ocean and has long been a concern of scientists worried about its effects on marine life. Now, researchers from the Scripps Institute of Oceanography have found that a sharp increase in debris floating in a region between Hawaii and California — dubbed the Eastern Garbage Patch — is significantly affecting the environment of one of the ocean’s smallest residents.
The finding, published Wednesday in Biology Letters, reports that a marine insect that skims the oceans surface is laying eggs on top of plastic bits rather than natural flotsam, which scientists are concerned could be replaced by debris in its habitat.

Top scientists urge governments to solve environmental 'dilemmas' Demand for water and energy, natural disasters and measuring carbon dioxide must be prioritised, leading institutions say


Flooding in Thailand in December 2011. Natural disasters have been taking an increasing toll in recent years – last year’s economic losses owing to natural disasters were the highest ever. Photograph: Damir Sagolj/Reuters


Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, 10th May, 2012.
The world's leading scientific institutions have urged governments to focus on three "global dilemmas": growing demands for water and energy, natural disasters and measuring carbon dioxide.
In a series of statements, the scientists recommended that governments should "engage the international research community in developing systematic, innovative solutions" to these pressing problems.
The heads of the national science academies of 15 countries, including the UK, the US, China, Germany, Russia and India, signed the statements, which are timed to be considered by governments at the forthcoming G8 meeting of the world's biggest industrialised economies, in the US.
They recommended that governments should prioritise the three areas they had identified, and work with scientists in order to develop ways of solving the problems.

To read more:

Monday, May 7, 2012

When Scientists Speak, Who Listens?


By Robert Walker, President, Population Institute. Thanks to PMC for this one.

Scientists get no respect these days. When they speak, no one listens. It doesn't matter how many scientists are speaking, what they are saying, or what their qualifications are, they get a fraction of the media attention lavished on a reality TV star or an American Idol contestant. Three thousand scientists and experts, including a number of Nobel Laureates, joined together and issued a warning several weeks ago about the planet and possible "catastrophic consequences" for global civilization, but Kim Kardashian and her alleged marriage woes stole the headlines. The Royal Society, the world's oldest and most distinguished academy of science, late last month issued a report on how increasing population and rising consumption are imperiling the planet. Sir John Sulston, the Nobel Prize Laureate who chaired the working group, cautioned about a possible "downward vortex of economic, socio-political and environmental ills," but his warning got less press attention in the U.S. than Mitt Romney's dog.
To read more:

Sunday, May 6, 2012

How humans have transformed Earth: Incredible video illuminates every road, shipping route and flight path. Watch "Anthropocene" by Globaia


By Rob Waugh and Ted Thornhill. Mail Online, 25th April, 2012.

From space Earth looks completely untouched. However, it's deceptive, as a new video shows in mesmerising fashion.

'Anthropocene' demonstrates just how much the planet has been transformed by humans by illuminating every road, shipping route and flight path.

The three-minute clip is the result of 13 years of devotion by Canadian anthropologist Felix Pharand.


The video:
Globaïa presents this short film 'Welcome to the Anthropocene' commissionned for the Planet Under Pressure conference. Watch the narrated version here below. 
More on the project: anthropocene.info



Saturday, May 5, 2012

Healthy GDP does not mean healthy people - A response to the Royal Social Report

Health advocates show their bellies with the words ‘‘Avoid a New Year’s paunch’’ painted on them. Thailand’s growing economy has given rise to increasing rates of child obesity and other health problems as people consume more fatty and salty fast foods


Bangkok Post. Published: 2/05/2012 at 11:21 AM - Newspaper section: News
Last week, when I first saw the BBC news headline, "Population and consumption key to future, report says," I thought, "Here we go again." And it has panned out just the way I thought it would.
For those who might have missed it, the headline refers to the report just released by the Royal Society as a contribution to the preparation of the United Nations Conference for Sustainable Development (RIO+20) to be convened in Rio de Janeiro next month. And when I took the first break from reading the report, entitled "People and Planet", freshly downloaded, I Googled the subject to see what others might have said about it. As I had expected, the fireworks had started and, with so many critics voicing their views, it was difficult to choose what to read.
Clearly, the issues relating to the number of people that can be sustained by resources of the planet remain searingly hot even over 200 years after Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus first published "An Essay on the Principle of Population" in 1798. I suspect that the controversies about what the Royal Society says in that report will continue to rage on well after the RIO+20 ends and this UN summit will be no different from most UN summits _ lots of talk and posturing will be aired but few, if any, substantive actions will follow.
Many critics say the report is poorly written and contains numerous inconsistencies as well as factual and logical errors. From there, blistering attacks on its contents and recommendations are launched. And as it has always been, this case is no different from that of the flat earth society _ no matter what evidence and arguments are brought forth, there will be people who continue to believe the contrary that the world can support any number of humans which, unless something truly catastrophic happens in the next few decades, may very well exceed the peak of 10 billion people the UN has projected. This is because new technologies will allow people to live increasingly longer and childless couples, single women and women who marry women to produce offspring with the services of sperm banks that are reported to be doing brisk business even in the present economic doldrums, according to Time magazine.
Although Thais are reported to be customers of those sperm banks, all trends indicate that Thailand's population will soon peak. When it comes to the need to limit their numbers, the Thais are much more willing to adjust their view than those who believe that the planet is flat and capable of supporting any size of population.

To read more:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/291373/healthy-gdp-does-not-mean-healthy-people
By Sawai Boonma has worked as a development economist for more than two decades.

Stop overpopulation hype, Bangkok Post. A personal response to Healthy GDP does not make healthy people article

By CHA-AM JAMAL
Phetchaburi. Published: 3/05/2012 at 08:38 AM - Newspaper section: News


Re: ''Healthy GDP does not mean healthy people'' (BP, Opinion, May 2).
The article has failed to grasp the essence of the argument between catastrophic overpopulation alarmists and the sceptics. The question is not whether there exists an upper limit of human population that could survive on the Earth's resources and production capability but exactly what that number is and whether we will ever reach or exceed it.
In the 1960s it was thought that the population then at 3 billion was already critical and that the Earth would not support more of us. If the population were allowed to grow, we were told, it would be at the expense of quality of life and risk of eventual implosion.
In the 1970s with no sign of degradation in the quality of life or of imminent implosion, overpopulation scientists arbitrarily changed the critical population level to 6 billion and forecast the end in the year 2000 when the population was expected to exceed the critical value. The 1973 movie Soylent Green spelled out a scenario for the coming disaster by overpopulation of human societies. That didn't happen either.

League City looks to ease population boom

New homes are under construction in the Marbella subdivision of League City. City council members have asked the city staff to find ways to control residential growth in League City. Photo by Kevin M. Cox

Thanks to PMC for this piece.

By Christopher Smith Gonzales. The Daily News. Published April 29, 2012

LEAGUE CITY — League City’s rapid growth has come with some growing pains.

The city — Galveston’s County’s largest with a population of more than 83,000 — is close to running out of water, and traffic is a headache on some of the main roads.

The cost of dealing with those issues is leading some council members to wonder whether growth can be slowed or, at least, controlled.

A global synthesis reveals biodiversity loss as a major driver of ecosystem change , Nature Publishing Group


New study by: David U. Hooper, E. Carol Adair, Bradley J. Cardinale, Jarrett E. K. Byrnes, Bruce A. Hungate, Kristin L. Matulich, Andrew Gonzalez, J. Emmett Duffy, Lars Gamfeldt & Mary I. O’Connor

Nature (2012) doi:10.1038/nature11118
Received 09 January 2012 Accepted 13 April 2012 Published online 02 May 2012

Evidence is mounting that extinctions are altering key processes important to the productivity and sustainability of Earth’s ecosystems1, 2, 3, 4. Further species loss will accelerate change in ecosystem processes5, 6, 7, 8, but it is unclear how these effects compare to the direct effects of other forms of environmental change that are both driving diversity loss and altering ecosystem function.

To read more:

Monday, April 30, 2012

Washington Post Gives Scary Demographic Story About Japan, Business Insider



By Dean Baker, CEPR, 29th April, 2012
The Washington Post has a practice of running a story ever month or so about Japan facing a demographic nightmare because its population is living longer. The idea is that this will impoverish the nation's youth, imposing a crushing burden for caring of the elderly. Of course those who know arithmetic know better.

This month's feature began by telling readers:
"The ominous demographics of this aging nation have long been seen by Japanese as a distant concern, not a present-day one. But that mind-set is being called into question by a prime minister who says that a crisis requiring immediate sacrifices has already begun.

In recent months, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has staked his job and bet his support on a tax increase designed to fund Japan’s soaring social security costs.

And the potential tax hike is only a sneak preview of the burdens to come as Japan grows into the world’s grayest society, a nation where two decades from now seniors will outnumber children 15 and younger by nearly 4 to 1.

Economists and government officials say that Japan, in the coming years, will probably raise the retirement age, again increase taxes and trim spending on everything from education to defense, all to care for its elderly.

Young Japanese — those entering the workforce amid two decades of stagnation — will face the greatest burden: They will earn less in real terms than their parents, pay higher pension premiums, receive fewer social services and, eventually, retire with a less-generous pension package."

Okay, let's unpack this one a bit. First, by every measure Japan's economy is operating far below its potential capacity. Why on earth does it need tax increases to pay for anything right now? This makes zero sense.


How soap operas changed the world - One of the many ways to help make a difference


By Stephanie Hegarty, BBC World Service
Soap operas aren't often celebrated for contributing to the good of society. Whether it's the materialism of Dallas or the idle gossip of Neighbours, they are better known for being shallow and addictive than for bringing about social change.
But around the world the genre has succeeded in providing "educational entertainment" - a blend of public service messages and melodrama that has enraptured millions of viewers.
Here are some of the things soaps have achieved.


Royal Society report 'People and the Planet' - Sir John Sulston FRS - Video Interview


The Royal Society has produced this video in which its working group chair Sir John Sulston explains why it has published the report.

Sunday, April 29, 2012

Prince Charles introduces new environmental documentary at Sundance London Film Festival Robert Redford's Sundance London festival gets the royal treatment as The Prince of Wales premieres environmental documentary 'Harmony: A New Way of Looking at Our World'


The Telegraph, Sunday 29th April, 2012

The film premiered last night at the first Sundance London film festival at the O2 Arena, with introductions by the Prince and the actor Robert Redford, a keen environmentalist and the founder of the original Sundance festival in Utah.

Redford paid tribute to the Prince’s work, describing it as “ahead of the curve” and “profoundly important”.

To read more and see video clip:

Meat Consumption in China Now Double That in the United States

By Janet Larsen, Earth Policy Institute
24th April, 2012

More than a quarter of all the meat produced worldwide is now eaten in China, and the country’s 1.35 billion people are hungry for more. In 1978, China’s meat consumption of 8 million tons was one third the U.S. consumption of 24 million tons. But by 1992, China had overtaken the United States as the world’s leading meat consumer—and it has not looked back since. Now China’s annual meat consumption of 71 million tons is more than double that in the United States. With U.S. meat consumption falling and China’s consumption still rising, the trajectories of these two countries are determining the shape of agriculture around the planet.
To read more:


Thursday, April 26, 2012

Governments failing to avert catastrophic climate change, IEA warns Ministers attending clean energy summit in London to be gravely warned about continuing global addiction to fossil fuels

Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency, whose latest report is damning of governments across the world. Photograph: Haruyoshi Yamaguchi/Getty Images

By Fionas Harvey and Damian Carrington, The Guardian 25th April, 2012
Governments are falling badly behind on low-carbon energy, putting carbon reduction targets out of reach and pushing the world to the brink of catastrophic climate change, the world's leading independent energy authority will warn on Wednesday.
The stark judgment is being given at a key meeting of energy ministers from the world's biggest economies and emitters taking place in London on Wednesday – a meeting already overshadowed by David Cameron's last-minute withdrawal from a keynote speech planned for Thursday.
"The world's energy system is being pushed to breaking point," Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency, writes in today's Guardian. "Our addiction to fossil fuels grows stronger each year. Many clean energy technologies are available but they are not being deployed quickly enough to avert potentially disastrous consequences."
For full article:

World needs to stabilise population and cut consumption, says Royal Society Economic and environmental catastrophes unavoidable unless rich countries cut consumption and global population stabilises

World population will reach 9 billion by 2050. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

By John Vidal, The Guardian, 26 April, 2012
World population needs to be stabilised quickly and high consumption in rich countries rapidly reduced to avoid "a downward spiral of economic and environmental ills", warns a major report from the Royal Society.


Contraception must be offered to all women who want it and consumption cut to reduce inequality, says the study published on Thursday, which was chaired by Nobel prize-winning biologist Sir John Sulston.


The assessment of humanity's prospects in the next 100 years, which has taken 21 months to complete, argues strongly that to achieve long and healthy lives for all 9 billion people expected to be living in 2050, the twin issues of population and consumption must be pushed to the top of political and economic agendas. Both issues have been largely ignored by politicians and played down by environment and development groups for 20 years, the report says.
For full article:

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Mother: Caring for Seven Billion. A must see film


Mother, the film, breaks a 40-year taboo by bringing to light an issue that silently fuels our most pressing environmental, humanitarian and social crises - population growth. In 2011 the world population reached 7 billion, a startling seven-fold increase since the first billion occurred 200 years ago. 

Population was once at the top of the international agenda, dominating the first Earth Day and the subject of best-selling books like “The Population Bomb”. Since the 1960s the world population has nearly doubled, adding more than 3 billion people.  At the same time, talking about population has become politically incorrect because of the sensitivity of the issues surrounding the topic–religion, economics, family planning and gender inequality. Yet it is an issue we cannot afford to ignore.


"Mother is a must-see film on why population growth still matters and what is hindering action to reduce it."
-Hania Zlotnik
Director of Population Division, United Nations

"The film compellingly argues that a fair and just solution is likely to only be found in a complete refocusing of our priorities and societies. Specifically, we must value diversity, human and biological, over the gross national product and human solidarity over competition. Although Fauchere does not show us how to get to this point, Mother leaves viewers with a ray of hope that humanity has the potential to reach such a state. It will also convince them that to do so we must not be afraid to reengage with the population issue and that the time for such renewed engagement is now."
Sacha Vignieri

Saturday, April 21, 2012

The End of China's One-Child Policy?


Photograph by Holly Wilmeth/Aurora Photos
In China, having a second child can cost a year's salary in fines

By Dexter Roberts, April 19, 2012, Bloomberg Businessweek
Molly Zhang, a 31-year-old account manager in the lighting industry, just had her second son. Now she has to pay a fine likely to total 30,000 yuan ($4,760), roughly equal to her annual salary, for violating China’s one-child policy. “Even for an average white-collar worker in Dongguan, this is a lot of money. But I didn’t want to have just one child,” says Zhang, adding that paying the penalty is necessary to get her child a household registration document, without which education and employment would be impossible.
Last year’s publication of China’s 2010 census, which revealed a much more pronounced decline in births than previously estimated, galvanized 20 or so of China’s top demographers, sociologists, and economists to advocate ending the one-child policy. “It is time to think about removing this policy decided 30 years ago—China’s situation has changed so much,” says Gu Baochang, a demographer at Renmin University of China in Beijing and one of the informal leaders of the group, which has twice submitted petitions to China’s top leaders urging them to reform or end the policy.

Guardians for the future: safeguarding the world from environmental crisis We are calling for a network of special representatives to help protect the resources and livelihoods of future generations


The World Future Council wants 'ombudspersons for future generations'. Photograph: Nasa/Corbis

Today, vast factory trawlers are vacuuming every living thing off the floor of the oceans. Toxic waste is being dumped in poor communities whose governments turn a blind eye. Millions of acres of irreplaceable primeval forest are purposely being burned every year, to make way for cattle ranches.

These are crimes against the future, crimes that are happening today, in large numbers, all over the world. These are crimes that will not only injure future generations, but destroy any future at all for millions of people. And today, there is in most countries no institution or person with the job of defending the rights of those future generations.
But tomorrow, there could be.
The World Future Council is calling for "ombudspersons for future generations". These would be guardians appointed at global, national and local levels whose job would be to help safeguard environmental and social conditions by speaking up authoritatively for future generations in all areas of policy-making. This could take the shape of a parliamentary commissioner, a guardian, a trustee or an auditor, depending on how it best fits into a nation's governance structure. This person would facilitate coherence between the separate pillars of government to overcome single issue thinking, and hold government departments and private actors accountable if they do not deliver on sustainable development goals.
To read more:
• The authors are members of the World Future Council. Judge CG Weeramantry is former vice-president of the International Court of Justice. Ashok Khosla is president of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and co-president of the Club of Rome. Dr Scilla Elworthy is founder of the Oxford Research Group and of Peace Direct.


Friday, April 20, 2012

Population planning imperative, by Mohammad Mohiuddin Abdullah

The Daily Star - 20 April, 2012
The writer is a former Joint Chief, (PRL), Planning Commission. Bangladesh.

The current high population growth rate is absorbing resources required for increased productivity and sustained economic development. Conversely, economic development, improved education and alleviation of poverty are pre-requisites for reduction in child mortality and fertility levels. Arable land, capital and skills are necessary inputs to achieve increased productivity and job creation.

Pressure on arable land is already high at 1,950 people per sq. km., which will rise to 2,600 in the next 12 years. The landless population, currently between 54% 60 %, will increase further. Food production is increasing but progress towards the government's objective of a minimally adequate 16 oz of food grains per capita day, about 1,500 calories, is slow. Investment per potential new work is one of the lowest in the world. Education resources are already fully extended to meet a primary school enrolment ratio of 64%. Around 3.25 million children will be added to the primary school population by 2021, depending on rate of fertility decline. This increased demand on resources will greatly diminish any capacity to extend coverage or improve standards. The rate of unemployment (40%) will be changed. Between now and the year 2021, about 22 million persons will be added to the labour force, aggravating further the existing unfavourable labour market.
Our per capita income is one of the lowest in the world. Estimates have shown that if population continues to grow at the current level of 1.74% (unofficial estimate 1.86%) gross domestic product (GDP) would need to grow at the rate of 12.5% per annum within 2021 to reach the threshold per capita income level of $1,150 by 2021. The generation of adequate resources for investment to achieve the growth rate of 12.5% per annum is a Herculean task for a country faced with serious internal resources constraints and where nearly 48% of development budget is financed out of the external assistance.
It is evident that without a substantial decrease in fertility, improvement in socio-economic conditions will be difficult if not possible to achieve. A significant change in fertility pattern will not occur unless overall development strategies are designed to equally involve both men and women. It is needless to mention here that all our economic effort for development is being negated by the ever-growing mass of population every year. And in the next decades, if steps are not taken now, we will not have sufficient arable land to cultivate to meet our increasing demand for food grains, industry, energy and urban expansion.
To read more: