10,000,000,000 - A new global population prediction is worrying - Nepal

Source: The Kathmandu Post)Nepal, May 5 -- Ten billion is a huge number. Especially when it means 10 billion mouths to feed, 10 billion bodies to clothe and 10 billion jobs to provide. That is the reaction by many to a report released by the UN on Tuesday forecasting a world population of 10.1 billion by 2100. Prior to the new calculations, the population was expected to level off around nine billion in the middle of the century.

These revised numbers are raising concerns about the Earth's carrying capacity. With problems that are undeniably aggravated by population like climate change, water scarcity and food security plaguing much of the globe, the idea of three billion more people is frightening indeed. Nepal is officially an "intermediate fertility country" with a fertility rate of 2.8 births per woman as opposed to a low fertility country like Taiwan (0.91 births) or a high fertility country like Ethiopia (5.2 births). According to a 2003 UNFPA projection, Nepal's population should surpass 34 million in 10 years.

Compared to 10 billion, this might not seem like such a huge figure, but the effects of overpopulation are already obvious here. The electricity and water situation is bad, university lecture halls re jam packed and there are far from enough jobs to go around. If things don't change, and another five million people are added, things can only get worse. As Nepal's population swells, more and more people will look for better opportunities abroad. But despite concerns in low fertility countries about a declining work force to care for the growing ranks of the elderly, the fear of losing the ethnic majority is keeping immigration restrictions high. Besides, the growth in high fertility countries far outweighs the declines in low fertility ones.

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