The UN revises its estimates upwards - World Population to Reach 7 Billion in October 2011, 10 Billion by 2100

World Population to reach 10 billion by 2100 if Fertility in all Countries Converges to Replacement Level

UNITED NATIONS, May 3 – The world population is estimated to reach 7 billion in October 2011 and projected to increase to 10.1 billion in the next 90 years, according to estimates in the 2010 Revision of World Population Prospects, the official United Nations population projections, released today. Most of this growth is expected to come from high-fertility countries: 39 in Africa, nine in Asia, six in Oceania and four in Latin America

Currently, 42 pecent of the world’s population lives in low-fertility countries, countries where women are not having enough children, on average, to ensure that each woman is replaced by a daughter who reaches reproductive age. Intermediate-fertility countries, where women, on average, are having between 1 and 1.5 daughters, account for an additional 40 percent of the world population. The remaining 18 percent lives in high-fertility countries where women, on average, have more than 1.5 daughters.

The highest potential for future growth is in high-fertility countries where it is projected, using the medium variant standard for long-term projections, that between now and 2100, the population in high-fertility countries will more than triple, increasing from 1.2 billion to 4.2 billion. Low and high variants projections produce smaller and larger projected populations. If the fertility follows the high variant projection, overall population in high-fertility countries could increase four or five fold instead of just tripling.

“A world of 7 billion is both a challenge and an opportunity,” said UNFPA Executive Director, Dr. Babatunde Ostimehin. “In particular, the population projections underscore the urgent need to provide safe and effective family planning to the 215 million women who lack it. Small variations in fertility – when multiplied across countries and over time – make a world of difference. We must invest the resources to enable women and men to have the means to exercise their human right to determine the number and spacing of their children,” he said.

Read the UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund press release here.

Read the United Nations press release here.

For more results of the World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, visit www.unpopulation.org.