By Dr. Gary Peters
The United Nations warned recently that the global consumption of natural resources could almost triple to 140 billion tons a year by 2050 unless nations take drastic steps to decouple economic growth from an ever-expanding use of natural resources. The United Nations also recently projected that the world’s population would exceed 9 billion by 2050. Neither of these projections makes sense and neither will happen. (Click here for the UN Piece)
The world’s population reached 2 billion in 1927; it is expected to reach 7 billion later in 2011. Much of what neoclassical economists consider “normal,” mainly sustained economic and demographic growth, has actually occurred during a period unprecedented in economic and demographic history. Both their models and underlying assumptions evolved during an era that cannot be duplicated, leaving us with numerous and serious questions about how good their models will be in a very different demographic future, especially if that future is constrained by flat or declining crude oil production, rising energy costs, and spiking food costs. The era of cheap fossil fuels has ended, but the kind of thinking that accompanied it has not, which bodes poorly for our ability to deal with the future.
It is easy to see why economists suffer from “physics envy.” After all, that proverbial apple that fell on Isaac Newton’s head in the 17th century, supposedly prompting his discovery of the law of gravity, would have fallen at the same rate then that it would today. The acceleration of gravity has not changed. On the other hand economics as a field of study didn’t even exist then; if it had it would have created “laws” that would probably be of little or no value today because economic laws exist within a much broader world of social and cultural conditions, which are always subject to change.
Consider the notion of tripling our use of natural resources over the next forty years, starting with one example: crude oil. According to the EIA, total oil production in January, 2011, averaged 88.2 million barrels per day (mbd). There are still “experts” who believe that total oil production can be pushed to perhaps 100 mbd, but I know of no one who believes it could approximate three times that, or 244.6 mbd.
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Gail is a writer and speaker about energy issues. She is especially known for her work with financial issues associated with peak oil. Prior to getting involved with energy issues, Ms. Tverberg worked as an actuarial consultant. This work involved performing insurance-related analyses and forecasts. Her personal blog is ourfiniteworld.com. She is also an editor of The Oil Drum.
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